A day in court: Has The Hague's Abyei ruling opened the door to peace in Sudan?

22 juli 2009

"Of symbolic importance," said Al Jazeera about today's judgment of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delimiting the boundaries of Abyei, an oil-rich area contested between the Government of Sudan and the SPLM, the former rebel movement and now government of autonomous southern Sudan. The Court's decision may be more than symbolic. The ruling strikes a delicate balance between the interests of north and south Sudan, and of settled Dinka tribes and Misseriyah nomads in the area. It avoids a return to war and opens the door to peace.

"The ruling has drawn the border in favour of the Government of Sudan, including the crucial city of Heglig with its oil installations. This is certainly less than the SPLM had expected. It leaves the NCP with a relatively good bargaining position for the remainder of the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement," says Ulrich Mans, advisor of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies based in Khartoum. The north has won the oil. The exclusion of Heglig from the area of Abyei means that the remaining oil producing capacity from Abyei will be insignificant. This will substantially reduce the revenues from oil produced in Abyei to the local Dinka and Misseriya communities, which, under the CPA, received 2% each. Revenues from oil in the north, which as of today includes Heglig, go directly to the central government budget. Therefore, the government of South Sudan will loose and the central government gain oil revenues. The ruling has also confirmed the north's control of the important Greater Nile Oil Pipeline. At first glance, the Permanent Court of Arbitration was asked to rule on a technical issue. The Court was asked to determine whether the Abyei Boundary Commission, set up under the CPA, had exceeded its mandate when it delimited the boundary in 2005. The exact boundaries of Abyei, and the Commission's decision, had become bones of contention between north and south Sudan and deadlocked the peace process. Not only because of oil. Abyei is a tribal hotbed with tensions between the settled southern Dinka tribe and the Misseriyah, Arab cattle herders. The latter are keen to protect their grazing rights. Last year, fighting broke out around Abyei killing scores of people and displacing 60.000 from their homes. Abyei town was raized to the ground and there were fears that the situation in Abyei could reignite the civil war. Abyei was also seen as a test of the north's willingness to implement the CPA. Therefore, the Court's decision has huge ramifications for the fragile peace process in Sudan and opens the door to implementation of the outstanding issues of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended more than 20 years of civil war. The south has won the political process. A return to war would have certainly jeopardised the upcoming referendum. Abyei with its borders decided by the Court will hold a referendum in 2011 on joining southern or north Sudan. South Sudan will hold a referendum that same year on whether to secede and become an independent state or to remain with Sudan. Depending on the outcome of the referendum, Abyei could become part of an independent south Sudan. The question is who will vote in the Abyei referendum. That, apart from the oil, was the second hotly contested issue. In the Abyei area as defined by the Court, there are a majority of Misseriya nomads. They are expected to vote for joining the north. According to Ulrich Mans, "in order to 'win' the referendum in 2011 on this new Abyei joining the south, SPLM is therefore expected to try to resettle as many Ngok Dinka families as possible into the area."

The Sudanese government is pleased with the outcome of the arbitration in The Hague. Also the SPLM has promised to adhere to the court's ruling. One judge dissented. Judge Awn Al-Khasawneh considers the judgment too much of a political compromise, meant to please all. The north may loose the south but got the oil, the south lost the oil but got their freedom, the Dinka tribes regained their ancestral lands and the Misseriyah retained their grazing rights. Perhaps The Hague has strengthened not only its reputation as legal capital of the world but also as city of peace and justice.