Arrrest warrant against Al-Bashir: the time of the rifle is over

4 maart 2009

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant against Sudanese president Al-Bashir for crimes against humanity and war crimes. This unprecedented move creates an opportunity for peace in Darfur and stability in Sudan.

This is the first arrest warrant issued by an international criminal court against a sitting head of state. Since the request of the prosecutor for an arrest warrant, President Bashir, who seized power in a coup in 1989, has actively sought to avoid the issuing of an arrest warrant against him. He has lobbied the UN Security Council -to no avail- to use its power to halt the judicial proceedings, he has cooperated with a new peace initiative by Qatar to start talks with Darfur rebel groups, lowered electricity prices and promised to hold free elections. He has hinted at institutional and political reform. On the eve of the court's decision, President Bashir festively opened a hydroelectric dam in Merowe, in the presence of Arab and Chinese officials and representatives of the European and Chinese companies involved, stating that development, not prosecution, is the answer to Sudan's problems.

In Sudan, rebels and former rebels are prepared to grab the opportunity for change. Rebel leader Abdul Wahid Al-Nur, leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), who refused to take part in the president-backed Qatar peace initiative, has called for a constitutional conference and the formation of a transitional government to end the six year conflict in Darfur. In Juba, president of the southern Sudan government Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is also first vice-president of Sudan, called for calm and underscored that the issuing on an indictment would not mean the end of our country, Sudan or the government." "He urged that this episode should not be viewed as a crisis but as an opportunity to consolidate peace, justice and stability in our country."

Practically, the arrest warrant cannot be enforced. There is no international police force that can arrest a head of state against his will. The UN mission in Sudan does not have such powers either. But member states of the ICC, among which are the majority of African countries, are obliged to arrest Bashir when he travels to their country. This makes the president a virtual prisoner in his own country. It would also make it difficult for him to attend any peace talks. In fact, it makes him, politically speaking, a pariah and a lame duck. This is a moment of change. But it may get worse before it gets better. Everyone knows the havoc Bashir is capable of wrecking through unleashing his militia and armed forces. There may be a backlash against humanitarian agencies and the UN. The head of Sudan's intelligence services, Sala Gosh, has warned the arrest warrant may trigger a rise in Islamic extremism. Harassment of opposition leaders, journalists and humanitarian NGOs has increased in recent months. Khalil Ibrahim, leader of the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) that attacked the capital Khartoum last year, who was willing to negotiate with the government, urged president Bashir to hand himself over to the ICC and threatened to retaliate violence with violence. It is crucial for the international community to do whatever it can to maintain Sudan's fragile stability, boost support for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between south and north Sudan, and support those willing to grab this momentum for peaceful political change. So far, the international community has failed Sudan. Though the UN Security Council authorized 20.000 peacekeepers for Darfur in July 2007, only sixty percent has been deployed, mainly from African and a few Asian countries.

The Netherlands, seat of the International Criminal Court and one of the largest donors to Sudan, with long and strong ties to its central government, the government of southern Sudan and good contacts with the rebel leaders, has a special responsibility at this unique moment to show that justice and peace are not irreconcilable notions but mutually reinforcing.