Collapse Dutch government

22 februari 2010

The British Ambassador attended Thursday's Uruzgan debate in Parliament. Today he wrote in his blog that "it was clear then that the relations between the coalition parties had moved from 'strained' to 'breaking point'." According to the Ambassador "it is too early to judge the international fallout, but I can't help thinking that the Netherlands' well-deserved reputation for outward-looking solidarity with friends and allies is going to be damaged by the failure to agree on a way forward in Afghanistan." The Christian Democrats as well as the Labour Party achieved the opposite of what they aimed to achieve. The collapse of the Dutch government means that Dutch troops will leave Afghanistan in 2010. That's not what the Christian Democrats want. The result and the way it came about is disappointing President Obama and letting down the Afghan people at a crucial time. That is not what Labour wants. The Taliban have been quick to claim victory for the Dutch defeat of will. There are no winners in this drama. The most embarrassing is that Dutch troops will be withdrawn without a single substantive debate on the situation in Afghanistan, without assessing what we have achieved, without assessing the consequences of withdrawal for the international effort in Afghanistan and for the Afghans, and without ensuring that what we have achieved will be sustained. In the heat of the blame-game and electoral positioning the real issue, improvement of the lives of Aghans and stability in Afghanistan, is forgotten.

Until August 2010 Dutch troops will retain full strength. From 1 August onwards, they will start handing over responsibilities to a new lead nation. Australia will not assume the lead nation role. Most likely, the Americans will be leading in Uruzgan. For the US, Uruzgan is not a priority but comes on top a host of other priorities. The US has a different social network and a different ways of doing things. Much of what the Dutch have achieved in building a civilian government the Afghans can eventually trust, will be lost.

Uruzgan may be small and not the centre of the action, it is nevertheless part of the Taliban heartland of southern Afghanistan. What happens in Uruzgan matters to the international efforts in southern Afghanistan. The NATO campaign in Helmand increases the pressure on the Taliban. If Uruzgan becomes an ungoverned or less governed space, this is where the Taliban will move. Like water flows to the lowest point. Governor Hamdan, cultivated by the Dutch, fears for his life. The Americans pay Jan Mohamed Khan, the former governor who was removed by the Dutch as a precondition for their deployment to Uruzgan, to guard the main roads.

The ball is now in the court of the Dutch Parliament. The remainder of the coalition –now in its interim state- has its hands tight and will implement the decision to end the mission in 2010. Parliament is now in charge. It could request the Dutch government to retain part of its operation in Uruzgan or to deploy a smaller training mission with some military operational support. Or to delay the start of logistic preparations for withdrawal, retaining the possibility to extend some of its presence under a new Cabinet’s decision. It is questionable whether the green left party will be willing to seriously entertain such ideas. They are crucial to finding a majority but may want to keep the possibility open to govern in a left-wing coalition with the Labour Party after the 9 June elections. Agreeing to continuation of the mission in Uruzgan would be the ultimate stab-in-the-back of the potential coalition partner.

It is remarkable that the British Ambassador in The Hague would be so publicly critical of the government of the country he is accredited to. Normally this is not done, diplomatically speaking. This exceptional behaviour of a friendly country shows the indignation at the Dutch irrational behaviour regarding Afghanistan. The international fall-out is not just the loss of a seat at the G-20 but the loss of trustworthiness in the eyes of friends and allies. That is a high price to pay for a country that is dependent on international trade and relations for its survival.