Kabul impressions

11 oktober 2010

Kabul  11 October 2010

I am getting used to the routine of getting up early, crossing the dusty street from our tent to get to the showers, passing a few men or women with machineguns hung loosely over their shoulders on the way.  After a quick breakfast in the large eating hall –the headquarters of the international assistance force in Afghanistan houses 2300 men and women- I take a large capuchino from the garden café run by Nepali Gurkha’s. Their happy ‘namaste’ makes a good beginning of the day.

Kabul, a city of almost 5 million, is bustling with life. Burkha-clad women, young boys selling fruit and men on bicycles crowd the streets. We are whisked through the chaotic traffic in a Toyota landcruiser with our helmets and flag jackets on. Our American military drivers enjoy the change from heavy fighting in the south of Afghanistan but curse the lengthy security procedures at every gated office we visit. “Why don’t they let us in. We are not going to (…) blow up the place. At least the Iraqi’s wanted us there to teach them how to be a country. But the Afghans don’t want us here.” They have a point. The Afghans don’t like foreigners, whether it be us, the Russians or Al-Qaeda. They want our help but they want to be sovereign. Yet, they don’t want to be abandoned. That complex mix perhaps explains the sometimes seemingly contradictory statements of President Karzai.

We meet General Petraeus, the commander of the 150.000 international troops in Afghanistan, immediately upon arrival. He is obviously the unequalled leader of the western presence in Afghanistan. Brimming with self-confidence he explains us his counterinsurgency strategy. A final push is needed to expand the security bubble and some fierce fighting is going on. Hundreds of mid-level Taliban fighters are getting killed. To ensure security in areas where NATO has no manpower to reach, extra local police –a sort of community watch- are being armed and trained by special forces. “We have all the inputs right. It is just a matter of time before the results will show.”

We find the same optimism in our meetings with other ISAF staff. But also at the EU and the UN there is a feeling that things may finally get better. Everyone now agrees that a political solution is needed. A High Peace Council has been established and the expectation is that talks with the Taliban may soon start. The council will function as a sounding board, its representativeness symbolizing a common resolve and legitimizing the negotiating process that will take place behind closed doors. Some of our interlocutors even speculate talks with the senior leadership of the Taliban may take place between January and April next year. Inclusivity, reconciliation and reintegration are the buzzwords on the streets.

Yet, not everyone we talk to is convinced of the necessity and wisdom of pressuring the Taliban into talks by military means. According to an Afghan intellectual, if too may mid-level Taliban get killed, they may be replaced by young, more radicalized Taliban with less ties to Afghan society and less inclination to talk and reconcile. The fighting also causes civilian casualties and lead to revenge killings of tribal elders by the Taliban at night. That alienates the population and destroys the backbone of the tribal Pashtun society. The civilian population is key to achieving a solution in Afghanistan. In some areas, they may equally dislike the Taliban and the central government, which is often noticeable by its absence or corrupt. Abusive warlords may also drive the population in the arms of the Taliban. To win the loyalty of the Afghan population, particularly in the southern Pashtun belt, the Karzai government, supported by western and Afghan security forces, will have to provide security and deliver basic services right after the area has been cleared of Taliban by military action. Otherwise, the Taliban will exploit the vacuum and disillusionment of the people once again. This is the real challenge. I was happy to meet Mr. Bopal, the head of the Directorate for Local Governance which ..

I am impressed by the training and capacity building effort that is going on for the Afghan army and police. We visit a huge training facility just outside Kabul. Through 7-week training courses 6000 Afghan army are produced each month. They are barely literate. It is hard to imagine how they participate and in some areas leads the counterinsurgency effort.

The evening before leaving for Kandahar, we go out to a hang-put place for journalists and expats in Kabul. Instead of wearing our flagjackets, we walk through the fenced gate and hop in a local taxi. Journalist gossip over a gin and tonic has it that the Taliban is trying to open a channel of communication with General Petraeus. After all, as one senior diplomat asserted “the real negotiations are between the US and the Taliban.”