Kosovo at one year: what is there to celebrate?

17 februari 2009

Today, Kosovo is one year old. On 17 February last year, Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence. Yesterday Hashim Thaci, Kosovo's prime minister, optimistically declared: "Kosovo will become a member of NATO, the European Union and the United Nations, and we will be recognized by the entire world." In reality, Panama was the latest of 54 countries –among which 22 EU member states- to recognize Kosovo's independence. Is there reason to celebrate?

On the one hand yes. Despite legal ambiguities, the transition from almost nine years of UN administration to EU-supervised independence has in fact taken place. But for a few incidents, the security situation has remained relatively calm. There has not been a mass exodus of Kosovo Serbs from the Serb enclaves scattered throughout in Kosovo, to Serbia. The EU and the UN have found a practical modus operandi acceptable to Belgrade: the EU operates under a UN-umbrella. Since December last year, EU police have deployed throughout Kosovo, though their presence in northern Kosovo where Serbs are a majority, is low-key and limited to the city of northern Mitrovica. Two days ago, the EU took control of the customs post in northern Kosovo, which were burned by Serbs a year ago. A recent report of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), found that Kosovo's judiciary does not discriminate against any particular ethnic group or community.

At closer look, Kosovo symbolizes the failure of the international community to successfully intervene following a military campaign. Deploying 50.000 well-trained and equipped NATO troops alongside an array of civilian organizations and mechanisms for almost a decade has failed to achieve a stable and viable state. Kosovo is independent in name only. In reality it is put under EU tutelage. The issue divides Europe: yesterday the European Parliament called upon the five European member states that have not yet recognized Kosovo to do so. UN membership, the ultimate goal of independence, is blocked by Russia and China. Kosovo has no economy to speak of, joblessness is sky-high and investors are hesitant to invest. Its image abroad is that of a criminal state thriving on trafficking women, drugs and stolen cars. The Kosovar government has recently contracted an American commercial agency, Saatchi and Saatchi, for 5.7 million Euros, to improve its image. But the biggest obstacle to creating a Kosovar state is the consolidation of a parallel Serb society in northern Kosovo. Serb MPs from opposition and ruling parties are traveling to Mitrovica today to attend a session of the self-proclaimed "Assembly of the Community of Municipalities" of northern Kosovo. The assembly was created by Serb leaders elected in the municipal elections held by Serbia in May 2008 in Serbia, including in Serb communities throughout Kosovo. Though this election was not recognized by the EU and the government of independent Kosovo, the Assembly, which is composed of 45 delegates from 26 communities, functions as a de facto parliament of Serbs in Kosovo. The Europe-friendly President Boris Tadic of Serbia is walking a tightrope to maintain political support for his pro-European course given the key-role the EU is playing as guarantor of Kosovo's independence. Tadic refuses to give up Kosovo in order to gain EU-membership. Officially, resolving Kosovo's future status and Serbia's accession to the EU are two separate processes. There is no alternative to Europe, however. In 20 years, unavoidably, Kosovo and Serbia will be member states of the EU.