'Military Light'

11 september 2009

9/11. Juliana Kazerne, The Hague. General Stanley McChrystal decides not to spend today with his troops in Afghanistan or in his home country commemorating the terrorist attack that triggered the war in Afghanistan. The highest commander of the international troops in Afghanistan is here to impress upon Dutch military and politicians the seriousness of the situation in Afghanistan and seek support for his new counterinsurgency strategy. "Everything The Netherlands can contribute after 2010 will be valuable and welcome." The message of the four-star general is clear: we are in Afghanistan to protect the Afghan population. Security and good governance is key. If Afghanistan becomes an ungoverned space, Al-Qaida may strike again. Insecurity in Afghanistan and Pakistan is a threat to America, Amsterdam and the world. The Afghan people prefer the government to the Taliban but need a guarantee of security. That requires our continued commitment. Through providing security and treating the Afghan population with respect -not killing innocent civilians, behaving correctly in traffic and house searches- we will win the hearts and minds of the Afghan population. McChrystal optimistically believes that "if we do the right thing, we can do this."

I put to general McChrystal that winning the hearts and minds of the general public in countries that contribute troops to Afghanistan is less and less obvious. What are the implications of a survey conducted by the German Marshall Fund? The Fund, which presented its findings in The Hague today, shows that Europeans support increasing contributions to Afghanistan's economic reconstruction but oppose sending more combat troops. A majority of respondents in troop contributing European countries wants to see the number of their troops reduced or their forces totally withdrawn. General McChrystal evades the question. "How can reconstruction reach the population? Security is required to deliver development." In other words: without large -or even larger- numbers of troops the war in Afghanistan cannot be won. General McChrystal's Dutch counterpart, Chief of the Dutch defence forces general van Uhm, however, is openly concerned. For the first time this week, he publicly expressed the hope that the Dutch populace will continue to support the mission. Not coincidentally, he did so on the occasion of the death of two Dutch soldiers within 24 hours. But Dutch scepticism about the mission in Afghanistan is not so much linked to the number of body bags but to questions about why our troops are actually there. Generals have a hard time explaining why we are. According to the Marshall Fund's survey, in the Netherlands 50% of those surveyed favour a reduction or withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Yet 63% of respondents support more reconstruction. In other words: we are committed to the development of Afghanistan but we are not convinced of the overwhelmingly military approach.

We have a public perception problem. In 2001, when Al-Qaida attacked the Twin Towers, we joined the fight in Afghanistan out of solidarity with our American friends and allies. For America, Afghanistan is a war of necessity. A national security priority. But the national security argument does not convince us. Except for a few security analysts, the Dutch public does not see fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan as a national security issue, let alone a priority. Reconstruction is what convinced us to send troops. But the continued suffering of the Afghan people, fraudulent elections, civilian casualties and our inability to stem the insurgent tide makes us doubt whether the effort is worth it. Interestingly, in America public support is also waning but for opposite reasons. For the Americans, the Afghan war looks too much like a nation building effort and too little like a counter-terrorism operation.

Ivo Daalder, the new American Ambassador to NATO, may have convinced Dutch diplomats of the need for Dutch troops to stay, when he paid a quick visit to The Hague last week. "Isn't the best way to protect Dutch investment in Afghanistan to stay involved in some substantial way [after 2010]?" he asked. General McChrystal may have convinced the largely military audience gathered in the Juliana barracks today. But it takes more than an American charm offensive to convince the ordinary Dutch man in the street and a critical Dutch parliament of the necessity and succes of the Afghan war. A 'military light' version of the mission, as proposed by a group of former American intelligence operatives, might be a more appropriate way to go.