New US strategy for Afghanistan

29 januari 2009

The appointment by President Obama, on 23 January, of Richard Holbrooke as special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan signifies a change in the US approach towards Afghanistan. Firstly, appointing a special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan shows an understanding that resolving the situation in Afghanistan requires an integrated strategy that fully engages Pakistan. Secondly, the appointment of the man who brokered the Dayton peace agreement in 1995 that ended the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the recognition that diplomacy is key to stabilising the situation in Afghanistan. Thirdly, by appointing Holbrooke, the new administration has chosen a man who will pursue a regional strategy towards resolving the problem at hand. President Zardari of Pakistan took the rare step of responding publicly to the appointment of Holbrooke in an op-ed in the Washington Post. He cautioned that the US relationship with Pakistan should no longer be a relationship of political (short-term) convenience but be based on a long-term strategy of strengthening democracy and economic development in Pakistan in order to effectively combat Islamic extremism. The president especially urged Holbrooke to tackle the wider regional problems, to defuse the tension between Pakistan and India and address the unresolved status of Kashmir, a territory disputed between India and Pakistan since partition in 1948. President Obama has ordered a review of his strategy in Afghanistan prior to the 60th anniversary of NATO in April this year. He is considering sending 30.000 additional troops to Afghanistan. This 'surge' won't have any tangible effect beyond the obvious military advantage if it not embedded in a wider regional diplomatic strategy. This regional approach should put Pakistan at its core. Pakistan, which ranks 9th on the failed states index for 2008 (Afghanistan ranks 7th), is a dangerous country because it is unstable with a weak civilian government and a strong military apparatus with lingering ties to Taliban elements, has nuclear weapons, allows part of its territory to be used by Islamic extremists, including Al-Qaeda, provides a safe haven for Taliban insurgents from Afghanistan, has an unrecognised border with Afghanistan and an unresolved conflict with India over Kashmir. It remains a crucial country to US efforts in Afghanistan as the major supply routes run through its territory. In order to create the prospect of stability in Afghanistan, the instability of Pakistan needs to be addressed as a matter of priority.

"Trying to get that [closing Taliban sanctuaries on Pakistani territory] cooperation out of the Pakistani government will be the single hardest test that Ambassador Holbrooke faces and in fact may be the single hardest foreign policy challenge president Obama faces" a renowned US thinktank, the Brookings Institute, commented a few days after his appointment. The Pakistani military created and sustained the Taliban to operate in Indian Kashmir and to be able to counter the Soviet influence or, more recently, to wage a proxy-war in Afghanistan. As long as the Pakistani military and the intelligence service remain fixated on countering a real or perceived threat from India, no serious military and financial resources will be dedicated to combating lawlessness and eliminating Taliban sanctuaries in the tribal areas of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. The completion of a highway, financed by India, linking Afghanistan to Iran and providing the country access to the Indian Ocean, confirms Pakistan’s worst fears that India’s aim is to encircle Pakistan. Only a diplomatic offensive involving all regional stakeholders can offer a realistic prospect of stabilising the region and ameliorating the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. Holbrooke should invigorate the Friends of Pakistan, a group of States with a economic or security interest in Pakistan, including Saudi Arabia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, the UN and the EU, that was created by former president Bush in 2008, to become an active player in a regional peace initiative. This group, which should engage India, Russia and Iran, should agree on a roadmap for resolving lingering regional conflicts and security concerns, including the Kashmir dispute and the Afghan-Pakistan tribal belt. The Friends of Pakistan should also assist the international community to set realistic short and long-term goals in Afghanistan and to facilitate political negotiations between the Afghan and Pakistani governments and the Taliban. It is time for a Dayton-II.