Nowhere to run

21 mei 2009

The Afghan people are trapped. So are the Taliban. According to Frank van Kappen, former military advisor to Kofi Annan, who just returned from Afghanistan, the Taliban are loosing the direct confrontation with ISAF troops. Out of desperation, they are now attacking and terrorising the civilian population. This leaves them no alternative but to shift their loyalty -albeit grudgingly- to ISAF. Yet, in the absence of a reliable Afghan government ISAF has nothing to offer them. There is a struggle between those who want to stabilise Afghanistan through quick, easy and dirty deals with local warlords and drug barons and building up a strong Afghan security apparatus, and those who argue that institution building is essential to build a durable and lasting peace in Afghanistan.

In theory, the latter have won. Both Security Sector Reform (SSR) and good governance are strategic aims of the international community in Afghanistan. However, in practice, while SSR is gathering speed, and both the Afghan National Army (ANA) and the Afghan National Police (ANP) are becoming fighting forces to reckon with, good governance is lagging behind. Good governance in Afghanistan means building governance institutions from the ground up. The idea is not to build a Switzerland in the region -which would take decades- but to set up basic structures so as to create a momentum for further development of governmental institutions.

Institution building in Afghanistan is a daunting task. Therefore, the idea to focus solely on short-term stabilisation through quick fixes is attractive. Why not work with Jan Mohammed Khan –the disposed former governor of Uruzgan- who can move and shake things through his criminal networks in the province? How effective is a decent governor anyway? According to Frank van Kappen, institution building is crucial to stability. "Quick fixes don’t solve anything," he says. "You absolutely need institution building." The problem is a lack of unified command. NATO controls the military training efforts but has no say over the civilian domain. Ideally, the Afghan government would direct and control the civilian reconstruction efforts. But we are still busy building the Afghan government. The EU and UN have a much too low profile. EU-NATO cooperation is blocked by political wrangling. "It is crucial that we tare down the brick walls between the EU and NATO" van Kappen says. "It is criminal that European political issues impede stabilisation efforts on the ground in Afghanistan."

Meanwhile, President Obama is flying in more troops to fight the growing Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan. In two weeks, Kandahar's ISAF base will house 20.000 extra US troops and park 120 additional helicopters. These forces are badly needed to implement the ink-blog strategy and help Dutch and other foreign troops hold more territory. It will also lead to more fighting and more civilian casualties, caused by Taliban and ISAF troops.

This may further alienate the civilian population from the ISAF forces. Yet, according to van Kappen, the civilian population is starting to take the side of ISAF. Anticipating the build-up of foreign forces, and given the increased strength of the Afghan Army, the Taliban have given up fighting ISAF troops directly. Instead, aided by Al-Qaeda elements, they are resorting to attacking and terrorising the civilian population. Many families have to give up one son to the Taliban. This is creating fierce resentment against the Taliban and has the effect of driving the population into the arms of ISAF. At a tactical level, and for short-term succes, this is good news. But ISAF troops will leave. It is crucial that the Afghan population starts trusting its own government. For now, that government is either non-existent or corrupt. Afghans have nowhere to run.