Pakistan's Orphans of the Cold War

6 mei 2009

Today, in Washington, President Zardari will be told in no uncertain terms that Pakistan should do more to stop the take-over by the Taliban of the northern tribal areas of Pakistan. According to western intelligence estimates, these areas are safe havens for Al-Qaeda and homegrown Islamic extremists from where they attack NATO forces in Afghanistan, targets inside Pakistan and prepare terrorist for their deadly missions abroad. President Obama has referred to this border region as the "most dangerous areas place in the world." Why can't an army of more than six hundred thousand troops defeat a few thousand Taliban? Pakistani security forces have been half-hearted in their response to Taliban advances in the tribal areas. They lack a clear strategy to deal with the insurgency and oscillate between cutting peace deals with local militia leaders and a late and sketchy military response. General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of the Pakistani army and one of the most powerful men in the world according to Time Magazine, has been hesitant to deploy the army against the insurgents too quickly in order to "give peace a chance." According to Time "it looks as if he's planning to be seen and heard as little as possible." However, peace has meant leaving the population to fend for themselves and ceding control of entire districts to the Taliban who have set up their own administration applying a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The majority of regular armed forces are deployed on the western border with India. The tribal areas are left to the paramilitary Frontier Corps, whose rank and file is drawn from the same tribal areas. "We are fighting our own people. That is very difficult," a Pakistani army general told me in 2007 in Rawalpindi, referring to some operations in the tribal areas. The Frontier Corps is not trained for insurgency and has reportedly sustained heavy losses in recent years. Pakistan will be annoyed at the US for pushing it to do more. A recent op-ed in the Pakistan Tribune complained that "the US is forcefully pressing Pakistan leadership to treat archrival India as a friend and consider the Pakistani militants as the chief threat to the existence of Pakistan." To Pakistan, the American mantra "to do more" against Islamic militants constitutes a fundamental misunderstanding and denial of Pakistan's genuine security concern: India. And for many in the security and intelligence community, it is hard to see the Islamic militants, who are considered strategic assets in the fight against India and post-ISAF Afghanistan, as the enemy. Containing, but not destroying them, also brings in more money to fight them. Pakistan is a country with stark fault lines. There is a world of difference between the urban elite, often British educated, moderate and open to western ideas, and the largely illiterate, often landless, rural and tribal population. The Taliban exploit the grievances of the rural poor against corrupt government and judicial officers, ineffective law enforcement and wealthy landlords. They seize control through a combination of terror and Robin Hood tactics. In Swat, the Taliban killed politicians from the governing secular party ANP and the educated moderate elite. They also killed a popular singer and dancer, Shabana and left her body to hang in the central square of Mingora as a warning that music and dancing are now banned. Subsequently, the Taliban set up a parallel government and judiciary to provide an alternative to the existing administration. With the army and police unable or unwilling to protect them, the population has no alternative but to flee or accept harsh Taliban rule. By the time the army decides to intervene, it is a bloody mess, causing large numbers of civilian casualties and refugees. That's where we are today, with thousands fleeing the scenic SWAT valley. Pakistan will not fight America's war. Many Pakistani's deeply resent the country being treated as a mere instrument in the US-war against terror. They demand a mature relationship between nuclear powers -comparable to the India-US relationship- and a long-term commitment of the US towards Pakistan. They resent Pakistan being referred to as a rogue or potentially failed state, whose nuclear arsenal may fall into the hands of the Taliban. They strongly resent the US unmanned drone attacks on Pakistani soil.

Pakistan must fight its own fight. Public opinion may now be turning against the militants. This offers a momentum to the US and other friends of Pakistan who have pledged to assist the country, to strengthen the civilian government in its efforts to build up its institutions, extend its reach to the outlying areas of Pakistan and offer the people, including the Orphans of the Cold War, a viable alternative to militant rule.