Sri Lanka: military victory does not equal peace

28 mei 2009

The Sri Lankan government is in a victor's mood. And that's no mood for compromise. China, India, Indonesia and Cuba have congratulated it with its military victory of the Tamil Tigers. They have blocked a condemnation of its attacks against civilians at the UN. The persistent Tamil demonstrator in London, The Hague or Washington, has disappeared from the windy square in front of Parliament. Have the fearsome Tamil Tigers been defeated? Is this a chance for peace? About a quarter of conflicts ends through peace agreements, about a quarter through military victory and the rest just fizzles out below the threshold of what we call conflict: more than 25 conflict-related deaths a year. While we like the idea of a negotiated peace, a peace treaty is no guarantee for peace. Sometimes, military victories produce more stable peace. But usually at a horrendous human cost.

No-one can help but feel happy at the defeat of the Tamil Tigers and hope it is for real. A peculiar hybrid between a world-wide terrorist network that invented suicide attacks as a strategy and a national liberation movement, the Tamil Tigers fought for 25 years for an independent Tamil state in the northern and eastern parts of Sri Lanka. They extorted and terrorised the Tamil population they claimed to represent, in Sri Lanka and abroad, and were hugely successful at raising funds from the diaspora for their struggle: an estimated 2-3.00 000 dollars per year. They killed Indian and Sri Lankan politicians. I won't forget the flower girl who walked up to Rajiv Ghandi in 1991 and blew herself up in his face. In the final hours of battle, the Tigers used their own people as human shields. An estimated 7000 were killed. The ball is now squarely in the court of the Sri-Lankan government. They declared the war won so they are now solely responsible and accountable for what's happening in the north. With the Tigers gone, they have a rare chance to reach out to the Tamil population and prove their worth. It won't be easy: in both communities, moderates who could build bridges have been silenced or killed. Singhalese who have defended human rights of Tamils are in hiding, sometimes ostracized by their families. Both societies have radicalised in 35 years of bloody civil war. Prospects of peace have been manipulated for political gain for decades. Military victory does not equal peace. Asia's longest civil war may be over but the Prevention of Terrorism Act and the state of emergency continue. Yet, the death of Velupillai Prabhakaran offers a chance for peace. First priority is to meet the immediate humanitarian needs of the Tamil population. Hundreds of thousand of Tamils interned in detention centres surrounded by barbed wire -referred to as concentration camps by some- need to be released and reunited with their families. UN chief Ban Ki Moon has demanded immediate access to the camps, from which people are said to disappear. Then a political process towards achieving real autonomy for the Tamils needs to be initiated. There have been solid autonomy plans on the table for decades. While conditions to do so may be ripe, the question is who will represent the Tamil population in these talks. Who are their leaders now that the Tigers are gone?