Water: cause for cooperation or conflict?

6 juni 2009

Amsterdam airport, June 6th. A few moments before taking off to Paris I hear His Holiness the Dalai Lama reflecting on his 3 day visit to Holland. Off camera, in the intimacy of his close aides and in his typical joyful mode he laughs: "I have been travelling the world for 50 years and on only two occasions I felt a little uncomfortable. The first was with a minister from New Zealand, the second occurred yesterday, when I met your minister of foreign affairs." The Dalai Lama refers to the only stain on his successful visit to the Netherlands. During a dialogue with religious leaders in a church in The Hague, the minister insisted a few times to discuss human rights in Tibet. The Dalai Lama did not want to speak about it. For the Tibetan leader this was not the time, nor the place to discuss matters of politics. "I am willing to discuss the Tibetan issue in any place, but not here. Here, in a church, we discuss inter-religious harmony." The religious ambiance of Verhagen's meeting with the Dalai Lama was carefully staged to avoid this meeting appearing to be political. A few hours after the church meeting (and a warm reception in parliament) we welcome the Dalai Lama at our Centre. In the presence of a select group of water and security experts from Holland, the UK, China, India, Pakistan and Nepal, the Dalai Lama breaks the ice by joking that he likes to speak directly and frankly and that, should he make any mistakes, he would like to be corrected. We assure him that Dutch people are at least as blunt as he is and will appreciate his "bluntness." With no media around, the Dalai Lama talks frankly about his serious concerns about the preservation of the water reserves and the delicate eco-system on the Tibetan Plateau. Tibet's status is unique in the world. On the Tibetan Plateau, eight of Asia's major rivers originate, providing a lifeline of water to over 1 billion people in Asia. This makes Tibet the "water tower" of Asia. Because Tibet is the third-largest repository of fresh water in the world, Tibet is also called the Third Pole. However, due to climate change, environmental degradation and large water diversion projects, Tibet's water reserves and its absorption capacity are dwindling. According to Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies in New Delhi, given a growing water scarcity in the region and the presence of 57 interstate river-basins, the spectre of water wars in Asia is real. There are no regional institutional arrangements involving all co-riparian states, nor any binding rules on the use of shared rivers worldwide. As China becomes increasingly starved for water, it plans to divert water from the Tibetan plateau to satisfy its needs. This will have negative consequences for India and Bangladesh. If not a direct cause, water is a driver of conflict in the region. The Dalai Lama stressed that water needs to be the basis for cooperation, not conflict. He also emphasises the importance of full autonomy to manage the Tibetan environment. Tibetans know Tibet better. Michael Zhao, a Chinese researcher who conducts research on the Tibetan plateau, agrees. Tibetan know how to manage the land and the water sources. This knowledge is essential to preserving the precious water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Managing these resources well is in the interest of Tibet, China and the wider region.

Chellaney, however, thinks it is not realistic to talk about Tibetan involvement in managing Tibet's water reserves now. "Control over the 2.5 million square kilometre Tibetan plateau gives China tremendous leverage. China will deplete the water resources before being open to recognising a shared interest among neighbouring states in these waters."

The Dalai Lama made a plea for not just words, but action, to preserve and sustainably manage Tibet's water resources. Hemanta Mishra, former advisor to the Asian Development and the World Bank, suggested declaring the Changtang, Tibet's high plateau, a world heritage site. Saleem Ali from Pakistan recommended establishing peace parks in Tibet, to avoid conflict over Tibet's water reserves. What these initiatives have in common is that they recognise that Tibet's resources are not China's alone but that its neighbours have a legitimate interest in their preservation. That will be a hard nut for China to crack. Friendly governments may play a crucial role in convincing China of the wisdom of this approach.